Question: Guillemots are birds of Arctic regions. They feed on fish that gather beneath thin sheets of floating ice, and they nest on nearby land. Guillemots need 80 consecutive snow-free days in a year to raise their chicks, so until average temperatures in the Arctic began to rise recently, the guillemots’ range was limited to the southernmost Arctic coast. Therefore, if the warming continues, the guillemots’ range will probably be enlarged by being extended northward along the coast.

Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument?

(A) Even if the warming trend continues, there will still be years in which guillemot chicks are killed by an unusually early snow.
(B) If the Arctic warming continues, guillemots’ current predators are likely to succeed in extending their own range farther north.
(C) Guillemots nest in coastal areas, where temperatures are generally higher than in inland areas.
(D) If the Arctic warming continues, much of the thin ice in the southern Arctic will disappear.
(E) The fish that guillemots eat are currently preyed on by a wider variety of predators in the southernmost Arctic regions than they are farther north.

Answer: D
Explanation:

In the critical reasoning part of the GMAT, you will be tested on your ability to analyze and think critically. To answer clearly, a person needs to have a lot of brain power.

To make a choice, each option needs to be carefully examined. Only one of the five choices given will be right. To make the best choice, the candidate must think about many things.

From the given passage,
Conclusion: Guillemots' range will move further north as temperatures rise.

Guillemots nest nearby and feed on fish beneath the ice. They need a place without snow to keep chickens. The region is warming, especially the north.

Assumption: They won't be able to extend their range because of something other than warming, it is assumed.

Because the case is strong otherwise, we are aware that the assumption will be this constraint (i.e., if the warm area is expanding and they can live in warm weather, then obviously their range will expand).

Let’s check the given choices -

A: Incorrect

It is an incorrect choice. Even on the Arctic's southernmost shore, an exceptionally early snowfall is possible. The guillemots would still be able to migrate north as long as this was an exceptional occurrence and not a regular occurrence. Sure, the guillemots would have some terrible years, but that would apply regardless of where they were residing (i.e., regardless of how far north they lived). Eliminate (A)

B: Incorrect

It is the wrong choice. Although Option (B) is appealing, pay attention to the word "current." In the south, guillemots are already preyed upon. That only presents a hardship for the guillemots to overcome; it DOES NOT PREVENT them from living in the south.

C: Incorrect

It is an incorrect choice. This information does not affect the author's position in any way. Will the guillemots be able to extend their range as the temperatures rise? Choice (C) can be disregarded because it offers no supporting information.

D: Correct

It is the correct answer. The author predicts that when the bird migrates further north, its range will only expand. According to option (D), the range will contract along the southern coast as the species moves farther north (if the thin ice disappears, the fish that gather under the thin ice might have to move northward). This substantially weakens the author's case, even though it doesn't necessarily refute it.

E: Incorrect

It is an incorrect answer. As they migrate further north, choice (E) implies that the guillemots will face less competition for food. This shows that as they migrate in that direction, the guillemots will be able to survive. The case would be weaker if option (E) had said the converse, namely, that a greater range of predators feed on fish further north. Choice (E) can be removed as is because it supports the argument as is.

“Guillemots are birds of the Arctic." They feed on fish that gather” – is a GMAT Critical question. To answer the question, a candidate can either find a piece of evidence that would weaken the argument or have logical flaws in the argument. GMAT critical reasoning tests the logical and analytical skills of the candidates. This topic requires candidates to find the argument's strengths and weaknesses or the logical flaw in the argument. The GMAT CR section contains 10 -13 GMAT critical reasoning questions out of 36 GMAT verbal questions.

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